2008 Electoral College Vote Predictions

Alabama: McCain. Large (27%) black population, but the white population is simply too conservative to make this a viable possibility for Obama.
Alaska: McCain.
Arizona: McCain, but closer than he’d like.
Arkansas: McCain. Smaller (16%) black population than Alabama and similar problem with conservative whites makes it a difficult state for Obama. One place where Hillary Clinton might very well have won though because of her roots in the state.
California: Obama
Colorado: Obama. Early votes plus Tom Schaller-esque changes in the West equal interesting new Democratic opportunities.
Connecticut: Obama.
Delaware: Obama.
District of Columbia: Obama.
Florida: Obama. Similar (16%) black population as Arkansas, but a decidedly greater number of former Northeasterners.
Georgia: Obama…maybe. This is the toughest call of any of these states for me, because the polls point to a McCain win, if a closer than usual one. But I’m swayed enough by the early voting results to think Obama might just pull this one out. George is 30% black and has more educated, less conventionally “southern” whites than neighboring Alabama. Emory, Agnes Scott, University of Georgia, etc., count for something, I think. Georgia can’t compare to the influx of the northern educationati of North Carolina, but it’s still sizable.
Hawaii: Obama.
Idaho: McCain.
Illinois: Obama.
Indiana: McCain. The polls are tight and I’m not convinced the state demographics are favorable enough to Obama to make it one he can pull out on GOTV alone.
Iowa: Obama.
Kansas: McCain.
Kentucky: McCain.
Louisiana: McCain. The state is 33 percent black, but like Alabama, the white population is simply too conservative for this to be enough for Obama to have any hope there.
Maine: Obama.
Maryland: Obama.
Massachusetts: Obama.
Michigan: Obama.
Minnesota: Obama.
Mississippi: McCain. Besides the District of Columbia, Mississippi has the highest black population of anywhere in the country (37%). But like Alabama and Louisiana, it also has a deeply conservative white population, and no northern or higher institutional influence similar to Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, or even Georgia.
Missouri: McCain. See “Indiana.” But I could very much be wrong on this one.
Montana: McCain. Obama has a shot, according to the polls, but I think it’s too late to make a difference and this state will settle on McCain.
Nebraska: McCain.
Nevada: Obama.
New Hampshire: Obama.
New Jersey: Obama.
New York: Obama.
North Carolina: Obama. I think the mix of a 22% black population and the “research triangle” make North Carolina increasingly similar to Virginia. It will be closer, but I think Obama might just pull it off.
North Dakota: McCain. See “Montana.”
Ohio: Obama.
Oklahoma: McCain.
Oregon: Obama.
Pennsylvania: Obama.
Rhode Island: Obama.
South Carolina: McCain. The state is 30% black, but falls prey to the same conservatizing factors as Mississippi and  Alabama.
South Dakota: McCain.
Tennessee: McCain. My home state…will not go for Obama.
Texas: McCain.
Utah: McCain.
Vermont: Obama.
Virginia: Obama. “Fake Virginia” is going to beat “Real Virginia” this time.
Washington: Obama.
West Virginia: McCain.
Wisconsin: Obama.
Wyoming: McCain.