This is the polling trend for Pennsylvania.
Yet this is what people are saying about the race there: “I don’t believe there’s a double-digit lead.” “The history of the presidential elections here is different.” “The polls don’t necessarily reflect what will happen on Election Day. We’re not a state that’s accustomed to huge blowouts.” And so on.
It’s not entirely clear to me why these feelings are enough in themselves to cast significant doubt on the predictability value of the current poll results. In the article linked above, John Brabender states, “In the governor’s race in 2002, there were polls just a few days out showing [Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell] with a 25-point lead and he ended up losing 50 of 67 counties and won by nine points.” Yet, again, is there an argument here that the problem in that race is bound to resurface in this one? What, exactly, were the flaws in those polls that caused them to mislead people about the status of the race? Has anyone checked to see if those flaws exist in the polling being conducted right now?
This is not to say the polls are 100 percent not wrong. Just that I’m left puzzled as to what strong evidence exists that they are.
